Vegas Odds on End of Session State Transportation Compromise

As nearly every news outlet has reported, the great transportation debate is set to be one of the biggest issues in this year's legislative session. With the Republicans in charge of the State House, passing transportation funding legislation will be difficult (to say the least).

I'm of two minds about the last years' proposals: on the one hand, I think more money for road expansion is a bad idea; on the other hand, I trust my colleagues who work closely on state policy  issues when they say that the MoveMN package offers a great deal and is most likely the best plan for the foreseeable future.

But if you know anything about state politics, you know that a lot of the story involves posturing over bargaining chips, huge bills that nobody other than a few lawyers read, and last-minute backroom deals. That's why I'm introducing a set of Vegas-style odds for what will happen when the session ends in May:

Q: What transportation funding plan will pass in the 2015 Legislative Session?

1:2 ------------ No deal
5:1 ------------ Straight-up boondoogle pork from the general fund
7:1 ------------ State gas tax for roads only
8:1 ------------ Revenue neutral MoveMN package (involving tax cuts elsewhere)
10:1 ---------- Shenanigans for road money (some sort of gimmicky loophole)
30:1 ---------- Full MoveMN package (metro sales tax + state gas tax)
85:1 ---------- Transit sales tax only
10000:1 ------ "No new roads" pledge (or other plan involving reform)

[See also: fantasy legislature, last year's session before and after pictures.]

[Board at work.]

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