Quick Thoughts about Industries That Worry Me, or Don't

[From the Star Tribune video of empty streets.]

Mulling around in my mind are the medium-term impacts of COVID-19 and the changes of people's behavior that will stick with us, even if COVID-19 fatality tapers off.

I am thinking here not of the next month or two, but of the next year or two, i.e. until there is a widespread, effective vaccine.

What am I missing?

(In no particular order)

Tourism/Hospitality - Probably the worst hit industry, especially for international travel.

Airlines - See above.

Retail - So much shopping is moving online, how will that affect retail in general? Probably quite a lot. Hopefully, smaller local shops can remain afloat.

Transit - It's so important that people take transit again, but how will people feel comfortable sitting a foot from a stranger? It should be possible, but I don't see it happening easily. I'm very worried.

Theater/Music - For live performance, it sort of depends. Theater might be OK, but many theaters or concert venues rely on older audiences. OTOH, places like First Avenue or any venue that is not seated is going to create a ton of anxiety for people, packed onto a dance floor for example.

Restaurants/Bars - Short-term, these are hurt a lot. But I actually think restaurants and bars can come back fairly quickly with some changes put in place. OTOH the business is so marginal already...

Food Trucks - They are events-driven. Without events, many can't survive.

Universities - Enrollment will be down a lot, especially for international students. This was already happening to some degree, but expect hiring freezes and for schools that were already struggling to get be worse off.

Catering/Events/Weddings/Funerals - I don't see how big events continue, especially multi-generational events with lots of folks traveling. They'll have to get smaller and change.

Festivals/Fairs - See above.

Night Clubs/Dancing - Seems bad, but at least young people are relatively invulnerable, I guess. Say goodbye to square dancing at the Eagles Club or Tapestry Folk Dance center, especially since their patrons are often older. When will it feel OK again to hold hands with dozens of strangers?

Seniors in Groups - Places that have moved past the epidemic stage seem to be maintaining restrictions and extreme caution for older people, who are by far the most vulnerable. Any kind of group activity for older people is going to be severely impacted.

Museums - If older people stop going to events, that would be bad for museums. So many museums rely on seniors, and seem to have doubled-down on events as a key part of their business model.

Sports: Spectator and Participation - I think it won't be too long before TV-only spectator sports return. They'll figure this out. That said, some sports are better than others. Crowds at stadiums, though? When will that happen again? Years from now?

Political Organizing - How do you door knock or hold rallies? Yet, people want to talk on the phone and have plenty of time to write emails to elected officials.

Churches - Mostly older people in close proximity, hugging and maybe even putting their hands near each others' faces? Seems bad.

Cruise Ships - Good riddance.